Holiday flights could carry fewer passengers as world warms

Scientists from the University of Reading studied how hotter air affects aircraft performance during take-off at 30 sites across Europe. When air gets warmer, it becomes less dense, making it harder for planes to generate lift, the force that allows them to fly.

The research, published in the journal Aerospace, focused on the Airbus A320, a common aircraft used for short and medium-haul flights across Europe. By the 2060s, some airports with shorter runways may need to reduce their maximum take-off weight by the equivalent of approximately 10 passengers per flight during summer months.

Dr Jonny Williams, lead author of the study at the University of Reading, said: "A warming world has an impact on people and businesses worldwide, and we are now showing one way it could increase the price of your summer holiday. Flying to Spain, Italy or Greece could get more expensive as flights carry fewer people due to climate change.

"Hot summer days when smaller airports have to reduce their weight will get more common. Our research shows conditions which used to happen about 1 day in a summer may happen 3 or 4 days a week by the 2060s.

"Aviation is sometimes singled out as a significant source of the greenhouse gases that are causing the planet to heat up. Our study provides yet more evidence that aviation is itself not immune to the impacts of climate change."

Mediterranean misery

Of the sites studied, the findings suggest four popular tourist destinations will be most affected:

• Chios, Greece

• Pantelleria, Italy

• Rome Ciampino, Italy

• San Sebastian, Spain.

These airports have shorter runways meaning the airlines can't operate them at the maximum weight set by the manufacturer. Future increases in heatwaves will only make this worse, forcing operators to reduce aircraft weights and profit margins even further.

While larger airports like London Heathrow and Gatwick have runways long enough to handle the A320 even in extreme heat, they may face challenges with larger aircraft like the Airbus A380, which needs more runway space.

The problem may also affect airport operations beyond simply reducing passenger numbers. Airlines might need to reschedule flights to cooler parts of the day, and runway maintenance needs could increase as surfaces degrade faster in extreme heat. The researchers note that following a more sustainable climate path would stabilise these effects, whereas continued high emissions would make the problem significantly worse. Future studies will examine how other factors like humidity and changing wind patterns may further impact take-off performance.