Climate change threatens global cocoa production: New study highlights pollination-based solutions

Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) is a vital cash-crop for four to six million small-holder farmers across the tropics, and supports a global chocolate industry valued at over USD 100 billion annually. The combination of millions of farmers relying on cocoa for their livelihoods, and increasing global demand for the crop, has driven cocoa plantation expansion and intensification of farming practices, often at the expense of biodiversity and long-term sustainability.

A new research study led by the University of Oxford, in collaboration with Westlake University, China, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Brazil, and University of Göttingen, Germany, has highlighted the significant risks posed to cocoa production by climate change. However, the authors also identified farm management solutions that can both climate-proof cocoa crops and boost productivity without the need to expand plantations into forests.

The research, conducted across three major cocoa-producing countries -- Brazil, Ghana, and Indonesia, which together account for 33% of global cocoa production -- investigated key factors influencing cocoa yields. The findings revealed that increasing pollination rates above current levels could boost yields by 20%. This demonstrates that insufficient pollination is occurring to produce the maximum possible yield for many cocoa plantations. Separate to the impact of pollination, sites where temperatures were up to 7 degrees warmer had 20-31% lower cocoa yields, underscoring the vulnerability of cocoa-producing regions to the effects of climate change.

Co-author Dr Acheampong Atta-Boateng, who recently completed his doctoral work at the University of Oxford, said: 'Cocoa is pollinated by tiny insects such as midges and thrips, and it comes as quite a surprise that most of the time there simply isn't enough pollination happening to produce the cocoa crop that is possible.'

To support sustainable cocoa production, researchers recommend practical strategies to enhance pollination, such as maintaining leaf litter and other understory biomass, preserving soil organic matter, providing moderate shade, and reducing agricultural chemical use. These practices not only increase pollinator abundance, but also help regulate plantation temperatures and improve soil health, ensuring long-term plantation resilience.

Dr Tonya Lander, from the University of Oxford and first author of the study said: 'This research shows that sustainable agricultural methods can significantly improve cocoa yields without farm expansion or intensification. By adopting biodiversity-centred, climate-resilient farming techniques, the cocoa sector can both increase production and safeguard farmers' livelihoods.'

Dr Tom Wanger of Westlake University, China added: 'The rising demand for cocoa and the short-term economic benefits to farmers has led to plantation expansion and ecological homogenization at the expense of biodiversity and vital ecosystem services, like pollination. This study highlights the long-term risks of this approach, and how pollination can be a solution that works alongside climate-resilient agricultural systems to achieve long-term, ecologically and financially sustainable solutions.'