Path to prosperity for planet and people shrinking rapidly, scientists warn

The new research builds on the 'Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries' published in Nature last year, which found that most of the vital limits within which people and the planet can thrive have been surpassed. The new paper identifies the 'Safe and Just Space' -- within which harm to humans and nature can be minimised while ensuring everyone can be provided for -- and sets out the paths to reach and stay in such a space.

Already shrinking

But future projections to 2050 show that this space will shrink over time, driven by inequality, unless urgent transformations take place. The only way to provide for everyone and ensure societies, businesses and economies thrive without destabilising the planet is to reduce inequalities in how critical Earth system resources, such as freshwater and nutrients, are accessed and used -- alongside economic and technological transformation.

The new work found that inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a minority are key drivers of this shrinking. Providing minimum resources for those who don't currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth system than that currently caused by the minority who use far greater resources.

Joyeeta Gupta: 'We're beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth. Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature. The longer we continue to widen the gap between those who have too much and those who don't have enough, the more extreme the consequences for all, as the support systems which underpin our way of life, our markets and our economies begin to collapse.'

A life free from poverty

If the Earth System Boundaries represent the "ceiling," above which Earth systems can no longer remain stable and resilient, and significant damage could be caused to people and nature, the Safe and Just Space represents a "foundation," showing us the minimum the global population needs from the Earth system, in order to live a life free from poverty. The space in between is full of opportunities that we can use to ensure a better future for people and planet.

To reach this space, the paper calls for change in three areas. Firstly, a push for changes to how we run the economy, finding new policies and funding mechanisms that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate. Secondly, more efficient and effective management, sharing and usage of resources at every level of society -- including addressing the excess consumption of some communities which is limiting access to basic resources for those who need them the most. Thirdly, investment in sustainable and affordable technologies, which will be essential to help us use fewer resources and to reopen the Safe and Just Space for all -- particularly where there is little or no space left.

Gupta: 'It remains possible for all humans to escape poverty and be safe from harm caused by Earth system change -- but the planet's ability to provide and protect is being stretched past its limits.'