Global fossil fuel emissions set to fall in 2026, but total CO2 keeps rising

The report estimates that fossil fuel emissions will total 38.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 2026. Oil emissions alone are expected to drop by 1.9%, largely reflecting a temporary energy shock associated with the conflict.

Clean energy is also playing an increasingly important role. Although worldwide energy consumption continues to grow, solar power, wind power, and electric vehicles are now meeting roughly two-thirds of the additional demand. Even so, researchers caution that the transition is not happening quickly enough to guarantee a lasting reduction in fossil fuel emissions.

Fossil Fuel Emissions Fall, but Total CO₂ Keeps Rising

Despite the projected decline in fossil fuel emissions, the overall picture is more troubling. When emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) are included, total global CO₂ emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion metric tons in 2025.

That increase highlights how progress in cleaner energy can be undermined by continued forest loss and other changes to the landscape.

The report also delivers a stark warning about the world's remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO₂ that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels). Researchers estimate that just 150 billion metric tons remain, enough for less than four years at today's emission rates.

As carbon dioxide continues accumulating in the atmosphere, the risks and damaging consequences of climate change are becoming more severe.

Natural Carbon Sinks Face New Climate Pressures

Beyond tracking emissions, the researchers examined the planet's natural "sinks" (absorption of CO₂ by land and ocean). These natural systems help limit atmospheric carbon dioxide by taking up some of what human activities release.

The amount of carbon absorbed by land ecosystems has recovered to earlier levels after weakening substantially during the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern. However, scientists expect the powerful 2026 El Niño to significantly influence carbon absorption in the coming year.

The research brought together experts from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU), the Alfred-Wegener-Institut, and more than 90 additional institutions worldwide.

Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who directs the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter and led the research, emphasized that a temporary reduction in emissions is not enough.

"A decline in fossil CO₂ emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution."

"The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline."

Clean Energy Could Bring a Historic Turning Point

Despite the challenges, researchers see growing evidence that renewable energy and electric transportation are beginning to change the trajectory of global emissions.

Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA's School of Environmental Sciences, pointed to the expanding influence of clean technologies, particularly in China.

"Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions. Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years."

However, a single year of falling emissions does not necessarily mean the world has reached a lasting peak. Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, stressed the importance of changes that permanently reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

"A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change. Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles is pushing emissions down in dozens of countries and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions."

Researchers also emphasize that reducing emissions alone will not be sufficient. Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere must become a much larger part of climate strategies.

Professor Julia Pongratz of LMU's Department of Geography explained the challenge:

"Alongside reducing emissions, we need to scale up CO₂ removal to reach greenhouse gas neutrality. Afforestation and reforestation already remove substantial amounts of CO₂, but these gains are still more than offset by emissions from deforestation, and novel carbon removal remains very limited. We need to act on all these fronts now."

Carbon Emissions in China, the US, India, and Europe

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget reveals significant differences in how emissions are changing across major economies.

China, which accounts for approximately 32% of the world's fossil fuel emissions, is expected to record a 0.9% reduction in 2026 after two consecutive years of relatively slow emissions growth. A substantial decline in oil emissions is helping drive the decrease, although emissions from coal are projected to rise slightly by 0.3%.

At the same time, China continues rapidly expanding electricity generation from renewable sources. The country leads the world in deploying clean technologies and expanding carbon absorption through reforestation. About half of the emissions avoided globally through renewable energy and electric vehicles can be attributed to China. It also has the largest carbon uptake from reforestation and afforestation (new forests).

The United States is projected to reduce emissions by 1.3%, primarily because of lower coal use. Coal emissions increased in 2025 as elevated natural gas prices and cold weather encouraged greater reliance on coal.

India is moving in the opposite direction. Its fossil fuel emissions are expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, exceeding its average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the past decade.

Elsewhere, the European Union is projected to cut emissions by 1.5%, while Japan is expected to record a 1% reduction.

Taken together, countries outside these major economies are forecast to reduce emissions by 0.7%. Much of that decrease comes from lower oil consumption, likely reflecting higher prices and restrictions on global supplies.

Oil Emissions Decline as Coal Continues to Rise

The report also provides a breakdown of projected emissions from individual fossil fuels.

Oil is expected to experience the largest reduction, with emissions falling 1.9% in 2026. Natural gas emissions are projected to decrease by 0.3%, while coal emissions are expected to increase by 0.6%.

International transportation is also contributing to the overall decline. Emissions from international aviation and international shipping are each forecast to fall by 1%. Reduced aviation activity in the Middle East is partly responsible for the decrease in air travel emissions.

Although these developments help slow fossil fuel emissions, the report indicates that much of the progress remains vulnerable to economic and geopolitical changes.

Deforestation Threatens Global Climate Progress

One of the report's most concerning findings involves carbon emissions from changes in land use.

Although emissions from land-use change have generally declined over the past decade, they are expected to increase to 5.1 billion metric tons of CO₂ in 2026.

The projected rise is linked to increased peat fires (almost entirely ignited by human activities) and the degradation of forests in Southeast Asia. Drier conditions associated with the developing El Niño have contributed to these problems.

Even with the latest increase, the long-term growth of total emissions has slowed considerably. Over the past decade, combined emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change increased by an average of 0.3% annually (0.3% per year), compared with 1.7% annually during the preceding decade (1.7% per year).

Permanent deforestation remains a major source of carbon dioxide. Between 2016 and 2025, it released approximately 3.8 billion metric tons of CO₂ each year. Reforestation and the establishment of new forests remove substantial amounts of carbon, but these activities offset only about half the emissions associated with permanent deforestation.

China, the 27 countries of the European Union, and the United States together account for the largest carbon removals through reforestation and afforestation, absorbing approximately 0.8 billion metric tons of CO₂ annually.

Brazil, Russia, and Indonesia also absorb considerable carbon through forest growth and restoration. However, in those countries, emissions from deforestation outweigh the benefits.

Emerging technologies designed to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or through other new approaches are making only a tiny contribution. At their current scale, these methods (excluding conventional means such as reforestation) compensate for less than 30 minutes of annual fossil fuel CO₂ emissions.

Meanwhile, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is projected to reach 427.7 parts per million in 2026, approximately 54% higher than before the Industrial Revolution.

More Countries Are Growing Their Economies While Cutting Emissions

A separate analysis by the same researchers, currently in press in another peer-reviewed journal, offers additional evidence that the expansion of clean energy is changing the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions.

As global energy demand increases, solar power, wind power, and electric vehicles can prevent some of that additional consumption from producing new fossil fuel emissions (or "offset").

Looking ahead through the end of 2028, the researchers estimate that expanding clean technologies will offset between 64% and 79% of the emissions that would otherwise result from growing energy demand.

Another encouraging trend is the increasing number of countries reducing emissions while their economies continue to expand.

According to the analysis, 59 countries had lower emissions in 2025 than in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, even as their economies grew.

The benefits are not limited to countries where emissions have already begun declining. Between 2019 and 2025, every major world region experienced slower emissions growth, including China, India, and other emerging economies where total emissions continued to rise.

Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles Are Reshaping Emissions

Electric vehicles are making an increasingly important contribution to reducing emissions, although their overall impact is still limited by the time required to replace existing gasoline and diesel vehicles.

In 2025, approximately 10% of the global car fleet was electrified (or 6% excluding hybrids). As more conventional vehicles are replaced, electric transportation is expected to play a larger role in reducing fossil fuel consumption.

Solar and wind power are already producing much more substantial benefits.

In 2010, these renewable energy sources prevented an estimated 0.28 billion metric tons of CO₂ emissions. By 2025, that figure had climbed to 4.1 billion metric tons, and it is projected to reach 4.6 billion metric tons in 2026.

The sharp increase demonstrates how quickly cleaner electricity generation is expanding and how much additional pollution would be produced without it.

The researchers believe that continued progress could bring the world to a critical milestone sooner than many might expect.

"If further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported through time, a sustained peak and decline in global CO₂ emissions could be a few years away."

The Global Carbon Budget is compiled annually by an international collaboration of more than 140 scientists. It provides a transparent assessment of global carbon emissions using established scientific methods and undergoes peer review.

The 2026 edition (the 21st annual report) is scheduled for publication as a preprint in Earth System Science Data on November 10, with a peer-reviewed version to follow.