Lyme disease predicted to rise in United States as climate warms

The study, by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University and the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, appears in the Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology.

"A sizable increase in the incidence of cases of Lyme disease in the United States due to climate change is imminent," says Edson Severnini, assistant professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College, who coauthored the study. "Our findings should alert clinicians, public health professionals, and policymakers, as well as the general public."

The number of reported cases of Lyme disease in the United States rose from 10,000 in 1991 to about 28,000 annually in the past five years. Growing evidence suggests that climate change may affect the incidence and prevalence of diseases like Lyme. This is because ticks spend most of their life cycle outside the host in an environment where temperature and humidity directly affect their development, activity, survival, and host-seeking behavior. In fact, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses the number of cases of Lyme disease as an indicator of climate change.

To better understand the magnitude of the effect of climate change on incidences of Lyme disease, researchers examined the effect of climatic variables on frequency of the disease in 15 U.S. states with the highest incidence of Lyme disease; these 15 states, which are primarily in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, contribute to 95 percent of reported cases. In those states, researchers studied 568 counties, using annual epidemiological data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2000 to 2016; they also looked at meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Assuming that the temperature will rise 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century, which is what the U.S. National Climate Assessment predicts will occur based on projection averages for the period 2036-2065, the study predicts that the number of cases of Lyme disease in the United States will increase about 21 percent by mid-century. This means 8.6 more cases of Lyme disease per 100,000 people annually.

"Tick-borne diseases are an important public health concern and the incidence of these infections is increasing in the Unites States and worldwide," explains Igor Dumic, researcher at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science and the Mayo Clinic Health System, who led the study. "Lyme disease is a classic example of the link between environmental factors and the occurrence and spread of disease."