Marine shipping emissions on track to meet 2030 goals, but expected to miss 2050 target

A new paper published in Earth's Future highlights the need.

Green energy investment

UBC researchers surveyed 149 marine shipping experts in 2021 and found they expect the sector to see a reduction of 30 to 40 per cent in the carbon intensity of shipping -- a measure of the amount of CO2 emitted to ship cargo over a given distance -- by 2030 compared with 2008 levels.

But they expect the sector won't meet its net-zero goal for 2050, instead achieving about 40 to 75 per cent reductions from 2008 levels.

"We can achieve these near-term reductions thanks to operational and technical measures but for net-zero emissions, we also need to tackle green energy," said senior author Dr. Amanda Giang (she/her), UBC assistant professor.

Less experience, more optimism

The study found that respondents with less than 10 years of work experience in the maritime sector were the most optimistic about emission reductions while respondents with more than 30 years of experience were the least optimistic.

Certainty in uncertain times

While alternative fuel sources such as ammonia, wind and related ship designs are available or in the works, transitioning to green-energy fleets would be a long-term investment, said first author Imranul Laskar (he/him), a doctoral candidate at the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability. "The sector needs some policy certainty so it can make those investments. Shipping could drive global energy transition. It's a good news story, but we haven't got it all figured out just yet."

The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Marine Environment Protection Committee approved proposed regulations today.