Improved Predictions Of Warming-induced Extinctions Sought; Species Persist More Than Models Assume, Researchers Say

They suggest that this "Quaternary conundrum" arises because the models fail to take adequate account of the mechanisms by which species persist in adverse conditions. Consequently, the researchers "believe that current projections of extinction rates are overestimates." A critical review of the four types of model now in common use leads the team to identify various simplifying assumptions in the models that can lead to biases.

The authors make eight recommendations for improving forecasts of extinction rates under global warming. The recommendations cover a wide range, from clarifying the definition of biodiversity to improving existing models and developing better ones. They include, for example, the suggestion that current models need to be more rigorously tested, that explanations of extinction other than climate change need to be more thoroughly considered, and that better data should be brought to bear on the problem, especially information from the fossil record of Quaternary ice ages.

The authors acknowledge, however, that they do not fully understand why so many species persisted during these ice ages, and caution that some genetic research suggests that species might in fact be more vulnerable than the fossil record indicates.

BioScience publishes commentary and peer-reviewed articles covering a wide range of biological fields, with a focus on "Organisms from Molecules to the Environment." The journal has been published since 1964 by the American Institute of Biological Sciences, an umbrella organization for professional scientific societies and organizations that are involved with biology. It represents some 200 member societies and organizations with a combined membership of about 250,000.