Unique Survey Of Ocean Climate May Improve Climate Predictions

The Nordic Seas have been much surveyed by, e.g., Norwegian, Faroese, Icelandic, and (Soviet) Russian research vessels since 1950.

The present study is the first large-scale synthesis of this rich observational documentation on annual to decadal time scales.

"The traditional and common understanding is that variability in the exchange of water masses between the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic Ocean is governed by changes in the northern deep waters. Our analysis does not support this concept. We find that anomalies can be traced back to the extension of the Gulf Stream into the Norwegian Sea," says the lead author of the study, dr. Tor Eldevik of the Nansen Center.

The Norwegian study improves the understanding of the Atlantic Ocean’s overturning circulation from a warm Gulf Stream in the surface to a cold return flow at depth. The analysis thus offer a new benchmark for evaluating which ocean regions and observations are the more appropriate for understanding past and present climate change. The study provides an observational basis for the development of future monitoring or model systems for climate prediction covering the North Atlantic/Nordic Seas region.

"It is a prerequisite for predicting future climate to identify and understand the climate variability of recent decades as documented by the instrumental record. Our study will hopefully be a valuable reference for identifying future change," says Eldevik.