Science And Public Policy Must Be Integrated To Respond Effectively To Global Warming, Scientists Urge

"Dramatic changes are in store for the global energy system," says Mike Davis, who leads the Energy and Environment Directorate at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "Collaboration among scientists, policy makers and industry must happen at unprecedented levels with science providing the basis for viable solutions."

Globally, 85 percent of energy comes from hydrocarbons -- coal, oil, natural gas and biomass. As demand for energy continues to rise, carbon emissions will increase. PNNL organized the symposium to provide an overview of the scientific, political, industrial and international perspectives related to climate change and carbon management challenges.

"To have a meaningful impact on managing carbon emission, we need to think about the problem globally," says Davis. "The solutions have to work for China, India, our own country and many others. Solutions have to be realistic and respect standards of living, the economy and national security."

Ray, who leads PNNL's Fundamental and Computational Sciences Directorate, will give an overview of scientific questions that must be answered to "limit this uncontrolled experiment with the carbon cycle. The technologies we'll need in 50 years are going to be based on fundamental discoveries we need to be making now," he says.

Future technologies will require research that scientists are just now starting to explore and other findings that we can only imagine at the moment. For example, accurate modeling of the entire Earth's system -- which includes air, land and ocean -- now requires making sense of petabytes of data (a billion times more than mega).

Capturing carbon dioxide that continues to be generated will require new chemical processes to cheaply and efficiently snag the gas before it disappears into the air. And storing it safely and effectively will require a better understanding of the chemical reactions that happen between carbon dioxide and other compounds in the ground. Being able to predict how stored carbon will affect its surroundings is key to tackling global warming. Ray will touch on additional challenges and the science needed to meet them as well.

Edmonds, an economist and environmental scientist from the Joint Global Change Research Institute, will discuss the latest findings from the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program, a decade of research on climate change technologies. Analyses make it clear that to reduce carbon dioxide to levels at which warming ceases, we need to stop carbon dioxide from hitting the air -- as soon as possible. Tapering usage is one way, but we can't give up our gas-powered cars overnight -- instead we need to take the long view to make the transition to a carbon emissions-free world, researchers say.

In order to have the greatest impact long-term, we need to invest in technologies already available. For example, good carbon sequestration technologies already exist -- and are being used -- but not on a scale that makes a dent in the problem.

The findings also suggest that modeling carbon prices on other pollutants, such as sulfur permit prices, isn't accurate. And unlike new technologies -- which start expensive and get cheaper over time -- the value of carbon itself will always go up, doubling every 15 years. The fewer carbon emissions allowed, the more expensive they get. "We're presenting insights that other people haven't caught up to yet," says Edmonds.

The panel will provide an international perspective on the carbon management challenge. Bao will discuss the fundamental research underway in China to address separation and transfer of CO₂ as it relates to carbon capture and sequestration. Ramanathan will provide insight on The Surya project, a comprehensive and rigorous scientific monitoring of soot emission in India that will have fundamental policy implications for reducing black carbon.

*The AAAS symposium is entitled The Carbon Journey: Understanding Global Climate Effects and Advancing Solutions and will be presented February 17, 2008. Davis will moderate the symposium with presentations from Michael Mudd of AEP and FutureGen, Douglas Ray of PNNL, Robert C. Marlay from the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, Xinhe Bao of the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics and V. Ramanathan, from the University of California San Diego.