Increasing Greenhouse Gases Lead To Dramatic Thinning Of The Upper Atmosphere

In a paper that will appear in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Space Physics, Dr. John Emmert and his colleagues, Drs. Michael Picone, Judith Lean, and Stephen Knowles, report that the average density of the thermosphere has decreased by about 10% during the past 35 years. The thermosphere is the highest layer in the atmosphere, and begins at an altitude of about 90 km (56 mi).

The study utilized orbital tracking data on 27 space objects that have been aloft for over 30 years and whose closest approach to the Earth ranges from 200–800 km (124–497 mi). The Space Shuttle typically orbits at 300–450 km (186–279 mi), and the International Space Station is at an altitude of about 400 km (248 mi). Although the atmosphere is extremely thin in this region (the air at the Earth's surface is a trillion times thicker), it is enough to exert a drag force on satellites, causing their orbits to decay slowly and ultimately resulting in a fiery disintegration at lower altitudes. By analyzing changes in the orbits of the selected objects, the scientists derived the yearly average density encountered by each object. After adjusting for other factors, the data from every object indicated a long-term decline in the density of the thermosphere.

This decrease in density had been predicted by theoretical simulations of the upper atmosphere's response to increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In the troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere) greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation, causing the well-known "global warming" effect. Higher in the atmosphere (above about 12 km (7.5 mi)), however, these gases actually enhance the ability of the atmosphere to radiate heat out to space, thereby causing a cooling effect. As the amount of carbon dioxide increases, the upper atmosphere becomes cooler and contracts, bringing lower-density gas to lower heights. Consequently, at a given height, the average density will decrease. Because each layer of the atmosphere rests on the layers below it, small changes at lower altitudes become amplified as one moves upwards. The NRL study found that the observed decrease in density depends on height in the same way as predicted by the theoretical simulations, indicating that greenhouse gases are a likely source of the change.

An extreme example of the greenhouse gas effect can be found on Venus, whose atmosphere is 96% carbon dioxide (compared to trace amounts in the Earth's atmosphere), resulting in a very hot lower atmosphere (800 degrees F, 427 degrees C) and a very cold and compact upper atmosphere.

These new results verify and significantly expand a limited earlier investigation, by scientists at The George Washington University, which also used orbital data to derive a long-term decrease in thermospheric density. The new NRL study utilizes more orbital data over a longer period of time and employs more precise analysis methods. By carefully examining all potential sources of error, the NRL team has provided solid evidence that the trend is neither artificial nor the result of physical processes other than internal atmospheric cooling.

Based on the NRL analysis and projections of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, the density at thermospheric heights could be cut in half by the year 2100. This change may present mixed blessings: while operational satellites will be able to stay aloft longer, using less fuel, so will damaging spacecraft debris, potentially increasing the frequency of collisions.

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This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research. Dr. Emmert conducted the study as a National Research Council Postdoctoral Research Associate at NRL. Drs. Picone and Lean are members of NRL's Space Science Division, and Dr. Knowles is a former Navy employee, now with SAIC.

These results appear in the Journal of Geophysical Research (In Press, doi:10.1029/2003JA010176).

NRL is the Department of the Navy's corporate laboratory and conducts a broad program of scientific research, technology and advanced development. The Laboratory, with a total complement of nearly 2,500 personnel, is located in southwest Washington, DC, with other major sites at the Stennis Space Center, MS; and Monterey, CA.